I wish I'd seen it. Karl Rove must be super-human... Getting Osama to echo Terry McAuliffe and Michael Moore and the Democratic Talking Points in his latest video was pure genius... that is if you listen to the, one time, Most Trusted Man in America." What was/is Cronkite THINKING???

From the Transcript of Cronkite's Friday appearance on Larry King Live:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)... OSAMA BIN LADEN (through translator): Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands. Any nation that does not attack us will not be attacked... (END VIDEO CLIP)

MEMRI Translation here

KING: OK, Walter. What do you make of this?

CRONKITE: Well, I make it out to be initially the reaction that it's a threat to us, that unless we make peace with him, in a sense, we can expect further attacks. He did not say that precisely, but it sounds like that when he says...

KING: The warning.

CRONKITE: What we just heard. So now the question is basically right now, how will this affect the election? And I have a feeling that it could tilt the election a bit. In fact, I'm a little inclined to think that Karl Rove, the political manager at the White House, who is a very clever man, he probably set up bin Laden to this thing. The advantage to the Republican side is to get rid of, as a principal subject of the campaigns right now, get rid of the whole problem of the al Qaqaa explosive dump. Right now, that, the last couple of days, has, I think, upset the Republican campaign.

Again... that "very clever man" whispered the Democratic Talking Points into Bin Laden's ear, and, VOILA the country forgets about the Al Qaaqaa explosives... Unbelievable

From the Kerry Spot:

=> Among early and absentee votes cast already, Bush has huge lead in FL, bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000.

=> In Florida, the campaign expects Bush to end up with an estimated 100,000 vote advantage among early and absentee voters.

Shabbat Shalom

John Kerry does not recognize our enemies; he sees them as nothing more than criminals... a nuisance. He wants to be well-liked and he wants the world to like the US.

George Bush wants to destroy those who call us the enemy. He’d rather win than be liked.

Every other difference between them is fluff.

Writing in this week's Forward Forum, Lewis Eisenberg, contrasts the President's ideas and actions on fighting terrorists with John Kerry's

Kerry's record raises doubts not only about his credibility, but also about his future strategic judgment in facing new threats to America and Israel.

Iran is a grave example. As Israel sought American-made "bunker-buster" bombs to defend against Iranian nuclear aggression, Kerry got skittish — again. He now proposes halting development of tactical nuclear bunker-buster bombs. That does not bode well for Israel's long-term security against Iranian nuclear ambitions, but it is consistent with the long-term record of the junior senator from Massachusetts.

Imagine a world in which the United States sat idly by in 1991 as Saddam invaded Kuwait and hurled 39 Scud missiles into Israel. Imagine a world in which the United States agreed to a unilateral nuclear freeze during the Cold War, backed down to the Soviet Union in 1984, canceled our B-1 bombers and sea-based missile defense, and halted construction of F-14 and F-15 fighter jets, Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot missiles and other weapons systems.

That is John Kerry's America, spelled out in a pattern of Senate votes. And while a senator's shortsightedness endangers only his reputation, that same weakness in a commander in chief would derail the war on terrorism, put America at risk and weaken Israel.

Now is not the time to relent on any front. With President Bush at the helm, the terrorists' cause is now as hopeless as it is ruthless, and the path to victory is certain.

For anyone interested in the early voting process... I know I was curious... here is a summary of my experience here in Florida.

When I got there, there were about 60 people in line ahead of me to get into the room set aside for marking the ballots and running them through the scanner. It took me a little over half an hour to get through that line and inside the inner sanctum. While in the line, I was able to read the Rights and Responsibilities of Florida Voters:

Interesting reading... especially the note on the "Responsibilities" page which basically relieves voters of all responsibilities. Typical modern PC crap.

Anyway, the line went pretty smoothly and I was impressed with the process they had in place especially since it was put together on such short notice after a Democratic Law suit that demanded more access for early voters. I did, though have one minor unpleasant experience.

I managed to take two photos inside the inner sanctum before the Democratic Observer (There was no Republican Observer signed in) confronted me demanding to know who I was, and told me I couldn’t take any photos without the permission of the people I'd be recording. So... I asked if anyone minded being in my photos... I even got a couple of cheery "Sures." But I was quickly told by the on-site manager that "We'll have no pictures taken in here."

It was, of course a reasonable request, although they could have handled it differently. The sight of a camera just seemed to arouse suspicion, and the only two people with the time and freedom to talk to me were only willing to command me to stop... not ask, but command... They didn't even think of offering to take my photo. So much for our southern hospitality...

Overall, voting went very smoothly and I was impressed with the upgrade in technology since the last election. After I cast my ballot, by running it through the scanner and placing my paper ballot into the possible recount pile, I was able to engage the polling place manager in a polite conversation... with no mention of the camera. I had a couple of questions about tracking who voted. More below the fold...

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Mr. Brzezinski might want to re-consider this thought.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was former President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser, said in an Associated Press interview that "any administration will have to come to terms with the fact the absence of progress on the Israel-Palestinian peace front contributes to intensified conflict and hostility."

Let's see... The "progress" that was Oslo started the Oslo War, but it was mostly Jews that were killed so that's OK? To welcome back Arafat and his thugs to Gaza and the territories AND give them arms is progress, but killing Jews doesn't count as intensified conflict and hostility?

Might it be the case that the intensified violence has caused the pause in progress towards peace? Of course, not in the Carter / Brzezinski world-view where the palestinian is the noble savage oppressed by the evil Jew... It's always the Jews' fault.

Like many, I don't have a clear idea of where Kerry stands on any issue. Some will say that's because he is more flexible, more open to listen to contrasting views, even that he's more thoughtful, than the average man. If that is so... if, indeed he is so intelligent, so careful, so thorough in examining an issue... then why would he spout off like he did this week over the "Missing Explosives" story?

There are two basic reasons for his careless and reckless words. One: He fears no backlash from the Media... after all, Fox and the Washington Times are far right organizations, and can be summarily dismissed, while pajama clad internet geeks can only reach a limited audience. Kerry will get very little unfavorable coverage from his friends at the networks and major newspapers, and he obviously knows it... especially when the NYT spoon feeds the story(ies) to him to use in his campaign ads and stump speeches.

Two: He will say anything to get elected. Because he really has no principled stand on any issue, and because the only unifying theme between him and the Democrats is "Anybody but Bush," he and the Democrats are in the awful position of hoping for bad news.

They are hoping for bad news on the economy... when none comes, Kerry shouts about how bad it is anyway [is he lying or just working from bad information?]. He, and they, cheer high oil prices, because it gives them new attack ad material. They hope for bad news in Iraq, so they can use it against the President. Yes, they even celebrate American casualties as a beacon of hope for Kerry's candidacy. In that climate, and really ONLY in that climate, does Kerry jump on the NYTrogate story and effectively tell the warfighters that they are incompetent.[again, is he lying or just working from bad information?] Do you think he sees any irony in that?

Will the truth about the story affect the election? Will it even reach the majority of voters? If the guys at Power Line or if Roger Simon and his commenters have anything to do with it, then it might. I'm not very optimistic though.

I was wrong about the Swiftie's impact on the election because I underestimated the effect the blogosphere would have. With the NYT digging in and defending their stinker of a story, will there be any meaningful rebuttal presented? I guess I'll tune into the Sunday shows to see.

I may have to buy some extra candy to pass out this weekend. Not to celebrate, of course.

Jews voting Republican? Go check these folks out for more news about Jews and Jewish Liberals voting to re-elect the President.

I don't know what the percentage is of Bush Supporters in my congregation. Support for the President is only mentioned in whispers among the closest of friends, if it's mentioned at all. I can say I was surprised with a couple of contributors listed at opensecrets.org, but, I have no real feel for the percentage of those likely to vote for the President. It'll be at least 20% and, likely, no more than 40%, but I'm just guessing.

It is, however, almost a given that Bush will likely do better among Jewish voters in 2004 than he did in 2000, but how much better? And will it really matter? Ira Rivkin, writing in Jerusalem Report Magazine, is someone that thinks that enough Jews will support the President to push him over the top.

Florida’s Jewish voters are generally older and, despite the image of the limited-income pensioner, financially better off and a bit more conservative than American Jews in general, notes John C. Green, a University of Akron political scientist specializing in religious-group voting patterns. Green says the president’s strong support for Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s tough response to Palestinian attacks could give him as much as 25-28 percent of Florida’s Jewish vote, enough to make the difference in an election that virtually everyone predicts will be extraordinarily tight.

There are 2,500 Haredi Floridians living in Israel... will they vote?

I saw this first at Roger Simon's... In discussing the fact that as many as 80% of American Jews continue to vote Democratic, Joel Engel's observations strike a chord with me.

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Yesterday, during an adult education class something happened that, in another time, might have shocked me. However, in this election season, incidents like this are all too common: the open hatred, anger and vitriolic scorn being heaped upon the President is commonplace.

Sitting at two large round tables, were about twenty Jews, all from the same Congregation, having bagels and coffee while waiting for our class to begin. One octogenarian member sat down and said, "This might be interesting to talk about," ...

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Some early voters met at the Florida Theater and cast their votes... they were only 5th Graders, and their votes aren't official... but Bush wins in Jacksonville, 68% - 32%.

In related news, Bush Doubles his Support Among Blacks.

Late Post from Tuesday

Unsatisfied with only one early polling place for the city, Democratic activists, joined by civil rights activists, successfully fought to increase the number of polling places. There are now 5 locations. Now they want eight more... actually, what they really want is more controversy and more attention.

Although their fight could have been waged months ago, they decided to wait until the week before the early polls opened. Their public confrontation, complete with a protest march led by the Reverend Jesse Jackson, was calculated to maximize their exposure. Deliberately, with a well thought out plan, the Democrats are doing everything they can to smear the integrity of our voting process. Inventing controversy when there is none, exaggerating problems that pop up, and hurling around the "D" word at every opportunity, the Democrats are setting the stage for their post-election battle, which is all but unavoidable, and they don't care about any damage they are doing. It's shameful.

I'm glad, at least, it was a harmless act, there was no vandalism.

When Marcia Nelson opened the front door of her Mandarin home Wednesday morning, she discovered an unexpected package.

Someone had delivered a DVD in a green case to her house. The case bore a note: "From a Concerned Neighbor. Make sure you cast an informed vote on Election Day."

On the DVD, was a bootlegged version of Michael Moore's film Fahrenheit 9/11, a commentary against President Bush and the war in Iraq.

A bootlegged copy is the only way I'd watch it.

The "concerned neighbor" is extremely naive, first in believing Moore's propaganda, and then by thinking it is likely to change someone's mind. I am, though, a little concerned about how some of these anonymous zealots will react following a Kerry defeat.

With a Hat tip to RedSugar Muse. It's a little quiz... which statements do you prefer. It's no real surprise that my preference would show:

You preferred Bush's statements 44% of the time You preferred Kerry's statements 56% of the time Voting purely on the issues you should vote Kerry Who would you vote for if you voted on the issues? Find out now!

The quiz tells me a couple of things. One: I'm a single issue voter this year, and John Kerry does not appreciate the seriousness, nor the breadth of the war we are in... Indeed he doesn't even recognize the world-wide war that was declared against us. Two: I don't trust John Kerry to be able to deliver on ANY of his promises... twenty ineffectual years in the Senate illustrates that fact all too well. Regardless of how I feel about his statements, I know he will be unable to deliver... he can't even run a coherent campaign, how will he run the most powerful country on the planet?

The Democrats could have defeated George Bush in a Landslide if they presented a candidate who understood the nature of the threat we face. Instead they pandered to the far left elemnets of the party and pushed more moderate Democrats away for being too Republican.

Dateline Cairo: Earlier this month a group of twenty or so Arab intellectuals met convened a seminar, "Islam and Reform." MEMRI describes these men and women as "leading progressives in the Arab and Muslim worlds." You should go read MEMRI's translation of the seminars final statement and recommendations. Interesting, too, were the questions they examined.

The seminar focused on three main issues: parameters for reform in Islam; the possibility of Islamist groups' participation in democratic regimes; and the relations between American foreign policy and nascent pro-democracy groups in the Muslim world.

As promising as the report was, the men were hardly lauded for superior work by other Muslims.

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The pre-emptive strikes continue here in Florida, as the state's chapter of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference has sent a complaint to the US Department of Justice to investigate "possible disenfranchisement" of black voters.

In my 22 years in civil rights, the only thing I've seen reminiscent of this is the shenanigans and antics of Watergate," [Florida SCLC chapter president Sevel] Brown said. "We are very concerned."

I didnt' realize that Watergate was a Civil Rights issue... But, among the complaints sent to Justice:

A phone campaign, whose callers are identifying themselves as Democratic Party representatives, erroneously telling African-American voters they can vote with sample ballots or by phone. The callers also are discouraging the voters from proper voting methods.

A phone poll targeting African-American voters in Leon County, with callers refusing to identify themselves.

An alleged comment by a House attorney at a December 2003 meeting of county election supervisors that state Republican leaders wanted to limit early voting to suppress minority voter turnout. Leon County Supervisor of Elections Ion Sancho has accused Bucky Mitchell, chief attorney for the House Procedures Committee, of making the comment. Mitchell has denied it.

More than 2,500 suspicious voter registration forms sent to the Leon County elections office, about half of which were supposedly those of African-Americans. Sancho, who is independent, has said the forms appear fraudulent.

Stay tuned for more. This election is getting uglier by the hour.

Less than 1500 people turned out on the first day of early voting here in Jacksonville, despite the presence of Jesse Jackson and the colorful, local Congresswoman Corrine Brown. The pair tried to make Jacksonville center stage for protesting and bring to light the myth of disenfranchising a million Blac Voters.

Pictured below are Reverend Jackson and Congresswoman Brown harassing the assistant Supervisor about there being only one polling place for early voting. Their showy bluster may have been more meaningful had there beenlong lines of people waiting to cast their ballots... As is so often the case when Reverend Jackson is involved, there was much more show than substance to the demonstration.

Still angry at the 27,000 voters who followed incorrect instructions in 2000, and blaming the President for the stupidity, the Reverend Jackson tried to stir up trouble where there is none. Their protest is treading a fine line of bringing attention to the issue without shining too much light on the reason that 27,000 votes were lost last time around.

Below, the Reverend was greeted by Jesse Wiggins [I don't know if he's also a Reverend] who came to record the scene for his own scrap book.

One really weird thing about the voting was this bit from the local fish wrap

As [Congresswoman] Brown began to vote, she initially decided to vote on a touch-screen machine -- a faux pas among Democrats, who say the machines are open to tampering. Democratic attorney Leslie Goller told her to switch to paper ballots.

"You're setting a bad example," Goller said.

Ms. Goller is the designated attorney for the Democratic Party overseeing all of the local pre-emptive strikes. I guess she's kind of the Forward Air Controller for the rest of the Democratic Party Lawyers... (there's no sign yet of the international monitors). She had to steer the Democratic Congresswoman back on message, by keeping her from the Evil Touch Screen polling machine... which in Jacksonville are for Blind Voters... [Oh the delicious Irony]The rest of us will have optical scanners read our paper ballots to register our votes.

Looking at the polling data for Florida over at Real Clear Politics, has made me curious about some of the numbers. Is it an anomaly, is there an explanation?

In the six most recent polls, The President's numbers are remarkable stable...
49 - 49 - 49 - 48 - 49 - 48.... But Kerry's were a bit more inconsistent...
50 - 45 - 46 - 48 - 44 - 44.... Could it be that the uncertainty is Kerry's numbers is because of weak support? Or maybe Democrats hiding support for the President? Or is it meaningless? Regardless of the explanation it's not looking good for the Kerry camp.

Why? I haven't quite figured out how early voting improves the accuracy of the count, but that's what the local men/women in the street are telling the news people. Early voting is somehow going to stop a repeat of the 2000 election fiasco...

"We believe thousands of voters will be disenfranchised if not given the full opportunity to cast their votes early and have all votes counted," the Rev. Elder Lee Harris said during a rally Saturday.

At any rate it's underway and seems to be going off without any problems.... yet.

And continuing the Democratic pre-emptive strikes, on what they seem to believe is the Banana Republic of Florida, the Reverend Jesse is in town today. More on that later.

Over at In Context, you can read about a way to remember and honor Navah Applebaum. Navah and her father, Dr. David Applebaum were among those murdered last year at the Cafe Hillel on the day before her wedding. Go, go do a good deed.

Shabbat Shalom

In the 2000 election, African-American voters in Jacksonville were embarrassed. Over 20,000 ballots from almost exclusively African-American precincts, were disqualified for "over-voting," that is, they voted for more than one Presidential candidate. Many of these voters were first-time voters, and for four years they have been told they were disenfranchised. Actually, they were really embarrassed, not disenfranchised.

Poll workers in at least two precincts were proudly interviewed by the local TV stations on election night. Two women, who could correctly be called "sweet little old ladies," boldly explained how they were instructing people to make sure they voted on every page. But there was a problem. Besides the congressional candidates, state candidates, local politicians, judges and referendums, there were so many candidates for President that they had to be listed on two pages. Palm Beach county tackled that problem with the infamous "butterfly ballot" but here in Jacksonville they just turned the page. The follow-on problem was that many voters followed the poll-workers instructions and cast votes on every page… Over 20,000 over-votes, likely Gore votes, were tossed... Is that being disenfranchised?

Well today, the Supervisor of Elections is hustling trying to get ready for Election Day, but the Southern Christian Leadership Council (SCLC), the NAACP, and an assortment of politicians have been on a protest vigil, picketing the Supervisor of Elections Office, bringing attention to themselves, making a nuisance of themselves and in some ways interfering with the Office’s attempts to get the election administrative work done. As an aside, one of the area’s Representatives to Congress is also one of the primary sponsors of the initiative to bring UN observers to Florida. All these people screaming, “Me, Me, Me!” and crying “FOUL!” are disrupting the process in their pre-emptive strike on Florida’s election. Last week:

African-American ministers and civil rights leaders called Duval County's election office leadership "arrogant" and mistaken for not adding early voting sites for the much-anticipated Nov. 2 election.

Their critique, which also blasted the handling of 1,448 incomplete registrations, continued months of skepticism falling on the office. Recalling the nearly 27,000 votes rejected in 2000 -- disproportionately in minority neighborhoods -- they questioned whether Jacksonville could manage the upcoming voting

And in the spirit of Democratic Party’s pre-emptive attacks, Rev. Bolden says, ”We'll have to go back to the drawing board. It's time for something to happen in Jacksonville.”

The elections office is busy... it has voter registration rolls to maintain, new voters to add to the rolls, absentee ballots to send out, sample ballots to prepare and mail, early voting to manage. On top of that they are dealing with access to blind voters. [The optical scan ballots, which the county chose are not blind-friendly, but touch screen machines with no paper trail are… and lawyers wonder why they get a bad rap]. Everywhere you look these “protestors,” on the front line of the Democratic pre-emptive strike, are bringing attention to themselves and claiming how faulty the system is while doing their best to disrupt the conscientious people trying to run a smooth election. By complaining loudly, although most complaints are vastly overblown, they are setting the stage for the ugly post-election fight they keep promising. It’s why I’m not a Democrat any longer… Stephen Green explains it all too well.

Below the fold, if you’re still interested in Florida Election Shenanigans, are links to some local stories with selected quotes.

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How much more money would the Federal Government take in by raising the minimum wage to $7 per hour as Kerry plans? Please include that employers contribution to FICA, and all other federally mandated programs... Medicare/Unemployment insurance/Workman's comp...

I realize that very few heads-of-households are paid the minimum wage, still LOTS of people are. A 36% increase in the federal minimum wage looks like a pretty nice windfall for Congress. Has anyone seen, or maybe even have done, a study that quantifies it?

Update: For a single full time employee on minimum wage, using this paycheck calculator,

Federal withholding increases from $9.54 to $18.63.
Medicare withholding goes from $2.99 to $4.06
and FICA withholding increases from $12.77 to $17.36.

So from one worker alone, not including the employers contribution, the Federal government stands to take an extra $14.75...
an increase of 58%. Not bad for a Congress looking to raise revenue. And then, how much more will the employer have to contribute?

The Conventional Wisdom seems to think that a Bush win is good news for Hillary Clinton's chances to become President. While reading Jeff Goldstein's Debate Verdict, it hit me that a Kerry win may be the better outcome for Hillary '08...

John Kerry: “Whatever you need, it’s yours. Need a job? You got it. Need a higher living wage? Done. Need cheap, universal healthcare? I’m your man. Need a better education? Have at it, paid in full. Relying on social security for your retirement? I’ll put it in a lock box. Tax relief? I can give you that, too. Want to lose your virginity to a teenage Mexicali hooker and a donkey? I’ll print coupons. And the best part is, every single one of my plans comes with free cole slaw and a plate of homestyle biscuits!” George Bush: “Anybody who believes this guy can deliver on even one percent of his promises deserves four years of John F’n Kerry. God bless, and good night.”

Many Jews are keeping a secret this year. A secret that leads them to avoid unpleasant conversation with friends and family about their intention to vote for George W. Bush. How many are like this New York Liberal who simply want to remain anonymous?

When I pull the lever on November 2nd for George Bush, I will be voting with more passionate conviction than I have ever mustered in a lifetime of voting Democratic.

My motive is simple: I believe the moral imperative of our time is to fully prosecute the War on Terror. As a Jew, I believe this sacred fight embodies the deepest Jewish values, so eloquently expressed by the ancient sage Hillel: “If I am not for myself, who will be for me? But if I am only for myself, what am I? And if not now, when?”

I don't believe the Arabs want to make peace with Israel. In the end peace will have to be forced upon them. Because they still believe Israel is illegitimate and because they are not interested in living in any sort of diverse society, the chances are ZERO that they will, all of a sudden, decide to accept the Jewish State of Israel as a neighbor. That change will have to be forced upon them using diplomatic, economic and military tactics.

In response to a commenter from a post below. [his blog concentrates on Saudi Arabia - America Relations which he thinks are valuable... he's generally pro-Arab but not excessively so... I recommend it for a level headed look at the Arab point of view], but I digress. I tried to make the point that it is way beyond time for the Arabs to face up to the reality of a Jewish State as their neighbor.

The Arabs fought against the second partition of the Palestinian Mandate even before the UN voted Israel into existence. (by the way… Why is Jordan any more legitimate than Israel?) We know what happened when Israel proclaimed its independence… and they've been at war with Israel since... All of the Arabs have been at war.

Even though the Arabs were defeated in '48, '67, '73.. it's been the Arab refusal to accept defeat... first in the UN, then on the battlefield, that has kept the region in turmoil. It's been the Arabs who have thumbed their noses at Peace. It’s been the Arabs who created the palestinian refugee problem. It will have to be the Arabs who decide to make peace, but I don't think they'll do it on their own.

Jonathan Tobin, writing at Jewish World Review has some thoughts on the Arab strategy for defeating Israel.

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I did not watch the debate Friday night outside of the last 10 minutes or so. I did catch some of the post-debate analysis, though as soon as the hah schoo' football highlights came on, I switched channels... Anyway, I didn't see very much, though I did sit down and read some of the live-bloggers' reports.

I need to plug Kevin Aylward's perspective from silent watching, as it was the first account I read. But to illustrate part of the reason I really love getting my news from the Blogosphere, look at this contrast between these two comments from a couple of Bloggers I respect... both live-blogging.

First from Outside the Beltway:

These questions absolutely suck!

Then from Spoons:

Jesus, these are almost all great questions

All three posts are well worth the time, especially if, like me, you missed the debate.

One of the reasons we are having so much difficulty in Iraq is the fact that we've largley ignored the rise of radical Islam and greatly understated its spread. Today, Thomas Friedman writes:

For the past few decades there has been "a surge of Islamic identity, not just in Iraq, but all over the Arab world," said Yitzhak Nakash, the Brandeis University expert on Shiite Islam and author of the upcoming "Shiism and Nationalism in the Arab World." "We definitely ignored it. We were in denial." But Saddam recognized its potential, Nakash said. On the Shiite side he allowed Moktada al-Sadr's father to lead Friday prayers in hopes of soaking up the religious energy among Shiites and directing it away from the regime. When the elder Sadr turned it on Saddam instead, Saddam had him killed in 1999. On the Sunni side, Nakash added, Saddam went on a mosque-building spree, to bolster his legitimacy, and he tolerated an infusion of Wahhabi Islam from Saudi Arabia to counterbalance the Shiites. By the time the U.S. invaded Iraq, "Islam was a potent force," Nakash said. "Iraq was no longer a largely secular country, waiting to embrace America, as many of the exiles remembered it." Does this mean all is lost in Iraq? Not necessarily, Nakash argues. It does mean that we have to alter our strategy and narrow our short-term expectations. The Shiites and the Kurds, who are 80 percent of Iraq's population, still want a democratic Iraq. That is a foundation for hope. However, the first manifestation of any democratic Iraq will almost certainly be strongly influenced, if not dominated, by religious figures. We will not go from Saddam to Jefferson without going through Sistani - the ayatollah we can work with. You just hope that the road will be short.

But what is particualarly frightening is the conmnection between this rise of Islam the suicide bombings. Again from Friedman,

Let's start with a simple observation: There have been some 125 suicide bomb attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq in the last 16 months, carried out most likely by Sunni Muslims. We need to think about this. There is some kind of suicide-supply chain working in the Muslim world and in Iraq that is able to draw recruits, connect them with bomb makers and deploy them tactically against U.S. and Iraqi targets on an almost daily basis. What is even more unnerving about these suicide bombers is that, unlike the Hamas crew in Israel, who produce videos of themselves, explain their rationale and say goodbye to families, virtually all the bombers in Iraq have blown themselves up without even telling us their names.

We don't really know how they are chosen, trained, indoctrinated, armed and launched. What we know is that the suicide bombers have killed and maimed hundreds of Iraqis, many of them waiting to join the police or army, and in doing so have done more to block U.S. efforts to reconstruct Iraq than any other factor. To put it bluntly: We are up against an enemy we do not know and cannot see - but who is undermining the whole U.S. mission.

Friedman is right, we will have to work with the Islamic clergy while we continue to help rebuild Iraq's own security forces. But how do we identify the true moderates? Indeed how do we identify moderate Islam anyplace in the world?

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